Scenarios

  • CanadaSue, a former nurse, imagines the pandemic in her hometown in Canada. If you had any doubts about the amount of raw talent available out there, this will put them to rest. An amazing, fully realized act of imagination (written in November 2004 for the CurEvents discussion board on flu).
  • The scenario in the fictional Nature blog, written by Declan Butler, is also an amazing piece of work. en espaņol: Es-NatureBlog
  • from the field is a fictional report from a journalist at the end of the first wave of Avian Flu in Lexington, Kentucky, written by Jim Wilkins
  • The Dominie’s Chronicle is a fictional exploration of how the education system might respond to a flu pandemic, as seen through the eyes of a teacher. Set in Edinburgh, Scotland, January - December 2008.
  • Preparing for the Next Pandemic, a piece by Dr. Michael Osterholm, appeared in the July/August 2005 issue of Foreign Affairs. A similar piece appeared in the NY Times. This is a hard-nosed look at ‘what-if’ by a public health expert. He’s also the fellow who suggested that given our level of pandemic preparedness, “we’re screwed if it hits soon”. An Osterholm interview from the Baltimore Sun (1 July 2005) can be found here.
  • pandemic wave in a spreadsheet details what a pandemic might look like given a number of assumptions. There are columns and rows. Each week is one row. Columns include formulae for number of diseased, number of severe cases, number of deaths, etc. All the formulae depend on a small number of parameters: size of the population, attack rate, severity rate, case-fatality ratio. Two different waves are “modeled”: one lasting 15 weeks, another lasting 7 weeks. The spreadsheet can be extended or modified as you wish. Keep in mind this is not a prediction, just a “scenario creating tool”, useful to explore qualitative and quantitative conclusions.
  • Monotreme’s Scenarios
  • Table top exercises

View Recent Changes for this Category ·

Page last modified on May 26, 2009, at 07:43 AM by pogge