Rumors

This is an experiment. Rumors can start from anywhere. They can start from an event that is misunderstood; someone can “start” a rumor to intentionally mislead others or someone can pass on information that they “heard”, and perhaps elaborate on , but sincerely believe is true. News media and web sites can propagate rumors, again sometimes intentionally and sometimes not intentionally, but because they did not adequately research and cross-check the facts. With widespread access to internet, rumors can spread in unprecedented time. Some rumors turn out to be false, others stubbornly hold out, and still others turn out to be true. If we can document sources, and adequately cross-check our facts, we might be better able to determine whether rumors are really rumors.

• Wild birds with H5N1 added 2/27/06
  • From GardenSpider (a CurEvent member)’s business collegue in Mali 2/2?/06
    Mali leaders believe H5N1 is in wild birds in Chad which will soon migrate up river valleys into Mali. Officials are uncertain what to do about notifying the public or not at this point. This was referred to ProMed for follow up but there has been no ProMed posting so presumably they have no additional data
• Fact

• Indonesian deaths and illnesses unreported by WHO added 2/21/06
  • From an NGO (World Vision) in Indonesia 2/21/06
    Scores of patients with bird flu symptoms are currently under intensive treatment in Jakarta, Bandung and other cities. There have been reports of deaths with bird flu symptoms in several smaller cities, such as in Subang, West Java. In most cases, their families buried the bodies without prior inspection of the real cause of their deaths.
• Fact
  • World Vision homepage/ bird flu added 2/21/06
  • comunication from Regional Communications Director (WV Indonesia) suggesting they are attempting to verify source - added 2/22/06

• WHO Pandemic Influenza Phases - which phase are we in? added 12/13/05
  • Fox news 5/23/05
    So far, the H5N1 bird flu has been at stage 4: small, highly localized clusters of human infections. At this stage, the virus cannot spread easily from person to person. The new evidence suggests — but does not yet prove — that bird flu may be moving to stage 5.
  • Recombinomics 7/05
  • Flu Wiki Forum discussion of whether phase 4 definition (or beyond) is currently satisfied 12/13/05
  • Flu Wiki Forum description of WHO focus from 60 Minutes Bird Flu Segment 12/13/05
• Facts
  • Phases of a Pandemic
  • Current WHO Pandemic Phase is 3
  • Flu study zeroes in on healthy village IHT 11/27/05 report of ongoing screening, results not available online 12/13/05
  • WHO cumulative cases
  • Ninth bird flu death in Indonesia BBC 12/13/05 current known cases
  • Turkey reports 21st human bird flu case AFP 1/17/06
  • WHO Director General Lee Jong-wook, warned that an outbreak in Britain was “inevitable and possibly imminent” Times Online 1/21/06.

• Tamiflu associated with deaths in Japan added 12/19/05
  • Japan - Two Deaths May Be Linked To Tamiflu AP story, “Because both men took various other drugs before their deaths, it was impossible to say for sure that Tamiflu killed them, he said. But specialists consulted by the ministry have said Tamiflu can’t be ruled out” in the deaths, he said.”
  • Microbiologist calls for investigation into bird flu vaccine 12/19/05
• Facts
  • EU says Roche’s Tamiflu safe, may be used in kids 12/15/05
  • US clears bird flu drug Tamiflu BBC, A Food and Drug Administration panel found no “causal link” between the deaths over the past 13 months and the drug, which is widely distributed. 12/19/05

• Rumor about Crimean H5 Human Cases added 12/13/05
  • Bird flu virus mutation in Ukraine is unique
  • WHO Researching Bird Flu in Ukraine
  • posted claim about human cases and fatalities at Flu Wiki 12/12/05
• Facts
  • WHO cumulative cases
  • 2 Men with Bird Flu Infection Fears in Eastern Romania sofia news agency 12/05/05
  • OIE message from Dr Petr I. Verbytskiy Head, State Department for Veterinary Medicine, Ministry of Agricultural Policy, Kiev 12/05/05
  • Preliminary results point to H5N1 virus in Ukraine afp 12/08/05
    mentions the firing of Ukraine’s chief vet inspector, Pyotr Verbitsky and state of emergency on the Crimea peninsula
  • Ukraine says deadly bird flu strain found in Crimea reuters 12/08/05
  • Romania detects new bird flu cases in poultry reuters 12/08/05, mentions Crimea
  • Romania detects new bird flu cases in poultry reuters 12/13/05
  • no reports of confirmed human cases of H5N1 can currently be located on the internet in Romania or the Crimean Peninsula as of 12/13/05
  • Ukraine confirms bird flu cases BBC 12/14/05 “There have been no human cases.”

• Rumor: U.S. National Guard to Niger to help with poultry biosecurity? added 3/1/2006
  • A usually reliable source told Path Forward of a rumor that the U.S. National Guard was on the way to Niger to help with bird flu in some unspecified manner. No further details available. added 3/1/2006

Discuss rumors in the New Forum here.

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