This page is a collection of probability estimates and expectation values
about the likelihood and severity of an H5N1 Influenza pandemic in the next X years.
Question to all bird flu experts
(professors for virology or epidemiology or comparable position with knowledge in H5N1) :
What’s your subjective estimate for the probability that
there will be a H5N1-pandemic within the next 12 months ?
please give :
a number for the probability
the date
your name and position (and optionally a link to check it)
a number for the anonymity level (see below)
send it to sterten@aol.com , subject-line H5N1prob
anonymity levels are : (small anonymity levels are preferred !)
* (1) name, expertise and probability number are all public
* (2) your name and expertise will be public but not your probability number (only statistics)
* (3) you want to stay completely anonymous, your name and email will only be used to verify your expertise and then deleted
statistics will be displayed once there are at least 5 expert estimates. experts can always update their estimates and change their anonymity level
Answers
No answers at this time
* mean: ---
* deviation: ---
Related Links
* probability estimates for a swine flu pandemic in 1976
* opinions and polls concerning the likelyhood of a pandemic